My initial response to the Monty Hall Problem (I am not seeing something - I need sleep)
Please bear w/ me - ongoing No-Touch Torture + Satanic Ritual Abuse + have been repeatedly medically battered (waiting for it all to leave my body which is a temple of the Holy Spirit) + haven't started PHIL2001 (Logic) @ Carleton yet
Here is the link to the original letter to the editor: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2683689
Something felt strange, so I tried my hand at the problem.
Here is my first pass at it.
| key in Cup | initialPick | switch? | finalPick | pickCupWithKey? | ||
| A | A | F | A | T | ||
| A | A | T | B | F | ||
| A | A | T | C | F | ||
| A | B | F | B | F | ||
| A | B | T | A | T | ||
| A | B | T | C | F | ||
| A | C | F | C | F | ||
| A | C | T | A | T | ||
| A | C | T | B | F | ||
| B | A | F | A | F | ||
| B | A | T | B | T | ||
| B | A | T | C | F | ||
| B | B | F | B | T | ||
| B | B | T | A | F | ||
| B | B | T | C | F | ||
| B | C | F | C | F | ||
| B | C | T | A | F | ||
| B | C | T | B | T | ||
| C | A | F | A | F | ||
| C | A | T | B | F | ||
| C | A | T | C | T | ||
| C | B | F | B | F | ||
| C | B | T | A | F | ||
| C | B | T | C | T | ||
| C | C | F | C | T | ||
| C | C | T | A | F | ||
| C | C | T | B | F |
So I made an enumerated truth table.
According to my truth table:
No matter what you pick the odds are 1/3
(If you switch or do not switch it is still 1/3)
When you pick one, the host takes the remaining two options and eliminates one of them.
Example: You pick A. The host rules out B. You can either stick with A or switch to C (and so forth).
What am I missing? I must be missing something...
Please, point it out to me.
Found out this morning I was wrong when analyzing the fashion in which I was programming the host revealing a door that the prize was not behind.
Figured out where I was wrong in analyzing the problem through writing the Monte Carlo simulation in python.
— Steven Reynen (@StevenReynen) September 1, 2025
I was wrong. The Monty Hall Logic Puzzle is not another "Darwin".
I see possible manipulation and deceit everywhere now that I have been so badly systematically abused.
That's the end of it.
Ran the simulation, and now better understand the problem.
I get things wrong all the time.
Praise the LORD!